In an age of nearly infinite leverage, judgment is the most important skill - Naval

AI, code and media give us infinite leverage. Soon, humans will no longer have to do much of the work ourselves, our greatest asset will be our judgement. The key to making better decisions lies in understanding the reversibility of our choices and embracing the idea of "test and iterate."

1. The 3 types of decisions:

• More Irreversible: Having a child, getting married

• Less Irreversible: Choosing a career, moving to a new city

• Reversible: Deciding on lunch, selecting a movie

2. Embrace the "Best Bad Guess" Mindset:

When faced with reversible decisions, don't overthink. Instead, adopt a "best bad guess" mentality. Remember to:

• Acknowledge uncertainty: It's okay not to have all the answers.

• Make an educated guess: Trust your instincts and experience.

• Learn from your choices: Mistakes offer valuable lessons for future decisions.

3. Test and Iterate:

Focus on experimentation and continuous improvement. Stay adaptable and resilient by:

• Staying flexible: Be open to adjusting your plans based on new information.

• Learning from each step: Treat every decision as a valuable learning opportunity.

• Thinking big picture: Keep your overarching goals in mind, even when making seemingly insignificant choices.

Honing our decision-making skills is crucial for both personal and professional growth. The more irreversible a decision is, the longer you should take to make it. Don't waste your energy stressing about things that can easily be reversed.