Three-card Monte is a confidence game in which a dealer moves three cards around on a table, trying to trick the player into guessing the wrong card. Usually, there are two black cards and one red queen. The goal is for the player to keep their eye on the "money card" (the queen) while the dealer mixes up the cards face down. The player then bets on which card they think is the queen as the dealer moves the cards around the table.

Even though it looks like a simple game of luck and paying attention, Three Card Monte is actually rigged so the player will lose. The dealer fools the player with sneaky hand movements, mind tricks, and help from their friends (called "shills").

"I was walking through Times Square when I noticed a small crowd gathered around a table. The dealer was shuffling cards, and people were placing bets. I watched for a bit and thought I had figured out the trick. I started with a small bet and won. Feeling confident, I kept betting, and the dealer kept letting me win. Then, when I placed a large bet, I suddenly lost. I tried to win my money back, but I kept losing. In the end, I lost over $500."

How the game is rigged.

Sleight of Hand: The dealer employs sleight-of-hand techniques, such as "The Hype," where the dealer pretends to throw the queen down but actually throws a different card. This manipulation ensures the player is always following the wrong card.
Shills: Shills are accomplices who pretend to be regular players but are in on the scam. They may feign winning to lure real players into a false sense of security or pressure them into betting more money.
Psychological Manipulation: Dealers exploit human psychology by using tactics like overconfidence. They let the player win a few initial rounds with small bets. Once the player is confident and bets a larger amount, the dealer uses sleight of hand to ensure the player loses.
Misdirection and Deception: Dealers may also use misdirection, such as bending a corner of the money card to make it seem easier to follow. However, they can unbend it and switch it with another card without the player noticing.

Why do people play anyway?

Despite being rigged, people are drawn to play Three Card Monte for several reasons:

They think they can win. They can't. The game is not a game but a con; it is rigged.
Overconfidence: Many players believe they can outsmart the dealer or catch the sleight of hand, underestimating the dealer's skill and the game's rigged nature.
The Thrill of Gambling: The excitement and risk associated with gambling can be enticing, especially in a street game setting where the atmosphere adds to the thrill.
Social Pressure: The presence of shills and a crowd can create a social environment where people feel pressured to participate, especially if they see others winning (or appearing to win).

What can we learn?

In business and life, we should consider both the downside and the upside. Sometimes, we make bets when the risk is great, but the payoff is also great. We should never make a bet where the risk is great and the payoff is low.

But in this case, the payoff is zero. When you can't win, don't play. The game is rigged and there are no odds. There is no upside.

So don't play a rigged game.

Make the decision to walk away.

Three Card Monte: A Lesson in Spotting Rigged Games in Life

We should never make a bet where the risk is great and the payoff is low.

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