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John B Corey Jr.

1y ago

Real estate investor, 2 countries, 11-time zones. London to Hawaii. Specific expertise with fund raising & the securities regulations. Using the regulations to scale up & attract investors.

Playing a mug's game—market timing
John Corey

People fear losing something more than they fear success. When the stock market drops, two conversations kick off. The drop, correction, or some other label is a signal to buy at a lower price. If something was valuable yesterday and today, you can buy it on sale, why not? Assuming nothing much has changed, yesterday's value is still there; buying today at the lower price is a bargain.

When someone shares a viewpoint like the one above, it often sparks a debate about whether the market has hit rock bottom. The fear of buying today only to see the price plummet further tomorrow is a valid concern. This fear of further drops leads to buying at the absolute bottom, a concept that history has shown to be until the market has already bottomed out; it's impossible to predict when that will happen unpredictably accurately.

My view is value determines when to buy and when to sell. Focus on why you want to own the asset and what determines your value. Ignore what others are thinking, as they are not you.

When someone sells a house, someone else is buying. For one person, the house's value is less than the value of the cash. Their motivation for selling is their own. The buyer sees ownership of the house as more valuable than holding the cash. For the transaction to complete, two sides must value what the other person has. Value, like beauty, is individual. This is more so when the item being bought or sold is unique and not easily substituted for.

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