Quick question: Are most people like you, or different from you?

Chances are you think most people are like you, but that may not be correct.

Here's why this happens and what can we do about it.

This bias is called the "False consensus effect".

It occurs because we tend to spend time with people (family and friends) who are like us.

The problem is, that doesn't mean EVERYONE is like us.

This leads to us projecting our values on society.

A common example is with elections.

People are often shocked when their party doesn't win because "everyone they know" supports their party.

But if they spend more time with people not like them, they would have a better picture.

So what causes the false consensus effect?

Some theories include

The desire to feel we belong in society
A reliance on our bias experiences
Empathy is difficult
Anchored by our thoughts

And some factors seem to make the false consensus effect stronger.

When we have particularly strong beliefs which we believe to be correct, we are more likely to over estimate their support [Morrison KR, Matthes J. 2011]

This applies even when we don't think they are the majority opinion.

So how can we minimise the effect?

The two simplest ways to reduce the false consensus effect are

Engage with other perspectives
Check that your assumptions are correct.

These help break our assumptions and introduce new viewpoints.

We can also reduce our motivations to be right.

Summary 👨‍🏫

The false consensus effect says that we tend to believe others share the same beliefs as us even when they don't.

We can counter it by engaging with other perspectives and checking the consensus.

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How the False Consensus Effect messes with your predictions (and how to manage it)

Quick question: Are most people like you, or different from you? Chances are you think mos

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