Russia has invaded Ukraine and at the time of writing (8.24 am GMT 24th Feb, 2022), no one really knows what is going on. This, of course, has sparked fear around the world of the possible spread of this conflict and from my part at least, copious amounts of pity to the people that live there that are caught up in the games of 'political leaders'.
Naturally, this has spiked fears in global stock markets and there has been a dip in values this morning for a few percent upon opening. I expect, this will also have some of our clients fretting about whether to make any amendments to their portfolios. The answer, is as always, no. You should not. No one is in control of world events, not even the people that instigated this one. It certainly should not be altering how you lead your life and invest / spend your money (provided you have a plan in place!).
I thought, it would be worthwhile putting this in perspective. Bad stuff happens quite often. Fear of bad stuff happening happens pretty much all the time! And most of the time nothing comes of it. If you're invested, and are still working , then you should still be investing regularly. In that case, you should praise the lord for this reduction in values caused by this war as it means you are buying more shares for the same money. If you are retired you probably have 15 to 30 years to live and are unlikely to withdraw all that money at once because then, what would you live on? My point is; you have time. You have time for the value of your investments to return.
Returns in 15 years since start of various wars on S&P 500
I thought I would take a look at investment returns when bad stuff actually did happen in the past and its effect on stock markets. Let's look at the returns of the S&P 500 (500 biggest companies in the US and makes up a large proportion of the world economy) in the 15 years from the outbreak of a number of wars.
First World War
Started July 1914 and from then until 15 years later the S&P 500 grew by 16.11% (dividends reinvested) per year with inflation rate at 3.58%
2nd World War
Started September 1939 and from then until 15 years later the S&P 500 grew by 12.51% (dividends reinvested) per year with inflation rate at 4.37%
Korean War
Started June 1950
Growth of S&P 500 of 15.34% a year
Inflation at 1.91%
Vietnam War
Started November 1955 (I didn't know this war lasted 20 years!)
Growth of S&P 500 of 7.82% a year
Inflation at 2.61%
Falklands War
Started April 1982
Growth of S&P 500 of 17.25% a year
Inflation at 3.55%
Gulf War
Started August 1990
Growth of S&P 500 of 11.38% a year
Inflation at 2.71%
Afghanistan War
Started October 2001 (another 20 year war)
Growth of S&P 500 of 6.77% a year
Inflation at 2.07%
The saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes. It is the only guide we have and if, economically, stocks markets survived 2 world wars and all the other mistakes humanity makes, then I reckon it will be fine in this one. It's just a matter of time.