When working on the cutting edge, the truth is that nobody really knows what’s going to happen next.

We see countless examples, ranging from machine learning and AI, the internet of things, blockchain and ICOs, even green tech. The missions are profound, the supposed market is huge, and the end result is often underwhelming versus what was promised.

The truth is, the most successful in tech are skeptics, and you should probably consider being one too.

There is an (understandable) knowledge gap

Naturally, most folks are not up-to-date with the cutting edge of technology.

Even those in the industry are still trying to figure it out!

And yet, that is where the majority of hype interest goes. Innovators and technical folks go where they see a lot of potentials but there are a lot of unknowns. They start off experimental, then money comes in and hypotheses about the future become “the vision”. By the time leading trends in tech reach the public, they’ve often become saturated with idealists and an already complicated topic is watered down to a misleading marketing campaign.

Ultimately, this is a case of buyer’s beware, so beware that not everything is as it seems.

The hype cycle is cyclical

Innovation often rhymes, but so do the too-good-to-be true tales.

Some hype cycles are real, but end up with only one big winner. The majority of hype cycles end with no real winners and a lot of losers. The truth is, even the most influential investors don’t really know what is going to happen. The average person has even less information, and therefore needs to be extra skeptical.

Nowhere is this clearer than in crypto wherein 2022 we see the same arguments in favour of new defi & nft projects as we saw in ICOs in 2017.

Fake it until you make it mentality

There are outright scams, falsehoods, and misleading advertising. All look similar and all should warrant skepticism.

Theranos is an open-and-shut case of a company outright lying to investors. Even I would like to believe that this isn’t the norm but there are likely many similar companies out there. With “fake it til you make it” as an industry’s leading motto, it’s not hard to see why.

Not every instance is a fraud, but the fake it mindset is still quite common.

Tech is inherently optimistic

You need to be optimistic to stand in front of investors and employees and claim you will build a billion-dollar business, that you are a rocket ship 🚀, with no past evidence you or anyone else can.

And, fortunate or unfortunate, that optimism is contagious. That is why smart people join along on big ambitious projects that inevitably burn to the ground. Even organizations that seem to be pillars in their ecosystem can turn out to be on the brink of collapse. As most people in tech learn over time, you need to counter optimism with realism. When you don’t know what the realistic outcome is, you need to substitute and balance optimism with pessimism.

A trite, but real principle employees use: If the snacks in the office downgrade, that’s when you really know there are real problems.

Companies will very well host large conferences and industry events weeks before announcing layoffs or cuts.

By adopting the cynical understanding that everything a company or industry believes in could turn out catastrophically wrong, you’ll have a more holistic understanding of the story.