I once had the most obvious business idea in South Africa. It nearly broke us.

Here's what happened.

The Springboks had just won the Rugby World Cup. South Africa was euphoric. I secured the official license to be their global poster supplier. World champions. A country obsessed with rugby. What could go wrong?

We went big. Printed thousands. Built the inventory. Launched hard.

Nobody bought them.

We tried retail — no interest. Corporates as a giveaway — no takers. A full marketing campaign — lots of buzz, almost no sales.

I called a friend. Afrikaans, deep retail knowledge, exactly the demographic I'd been targeting. I asked him two things: why isn't this working, and what did I miss?

His answer was simple. There was too much rugby. Super Rugby, Currie Cup, Varsity Cup, Rugby Championship, end of season tours, World Cup — fans were saturated. They were shelling out big bucks to wear the green and gold. But when it came to decorating their walls, the connection just wasn't deep enough.

I was a CFO. I understood markets, margins, licensing deals. And I'd missed the most basic thing — I'd never actually asked a real customer if they'd buy it.

We recovered. One product saved the deal — a detailed World Cup commemorative poster with tournament results, the squad, and the final details. It sold. It wasn't a bestseller, but we sold enough for us to fight another day.

The lesson I carry from this isn't about inventory or licensing.

It's about the psychology of the sure thing.

The opportunities that feel inevitable are the ones that bypass your critical thinking entirely. The more obvious the idea feels, the more important it is to ask the question you're most tempted to skip:

Have I actually spoken to someone who would buy this?

I hadn't. And it cost us.

Never bet everything on a sure thing. Size your bets so that being wrong is expensive but survivable.

In business, in your career, and in life — I have made calls that failed. The way I see it - It's all part of the game. And every failure is an opportunity to learn something which I couldn't have learned any other way.

My biggest learning? Make sure that no call is so big, that if it fails, it breaks you.