Yesterday 18th January OPEC released its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR). The report covers major issues affecting the world oil market and provides an outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year. It also provides a detailed analysis of key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand, supply as well as the oil market balance.

Here is a summary of 4 Key highlights from MOMR

1. World Economy

The Global GDP growth forecasts for 2021 and 2022 are at 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively.

USA growth is estimated at 5.5% for 2021 but for 2022 is estimated at 4%. Eurozone forecast at 5.2% for 2021 and 3.9% for 2022. China’s GDP forecast at 8% for 2021 and 5.6% for 2022. India’s GDP forecast at 8.8% for 2021 and 7% for 2022. Russia’s GDP forecast at 4% for 2021 and 2.7% for 2022.

2. World Oil Demand

World oil demand growth in 2021 is estimated at 5.7 mb/d to average 96.6 mb/d.

In 2022, the forecast for world oil demand growth estimated at 4.2 mb/d, with total global consumption at 100.8 mb/d.

3. World Oil Supply

Non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2021 estimated at around 0.7 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 63.6 mb/d. The non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2022 is estimated at around 3.0 mb/d, to average 66.7 mb/d.

OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d both in 2021 and 2022 to average 5.1 mb/d and 5.3 mb/d, respectively. In December, OPEC crude oil production increased by 0.2 mb/d m-o-m, to average 27.9 mb/d.

4. Balance of Supply and Demand

Demand for OPEC crude in 2021 remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 27.8 mb/d, around 4.9 mb/d higher than in 2020. Demand for OPEC crude in 2022 also remains unchanged from the previous month to stand at 28.9 mb/d, around 1.0 mb/d higher than in 2021.